Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability: The Crazy Choices Game

Grade Levels

10th Grade, 11th Grade, 12th Grade, 8th Grade, 9th Grade

Course, Subject

Mathematics

Related Academic Standards

Find probabilities for compound events (e.g., find probability of red and blue, find probability of red or blue) and represent as a fraction, decimal or percent).

CC.2.4.HS.B.1 CC.2.4.HS.B.1

Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable.

CC.2.4.HS.B.3 CC.2.4.HS.B.3

Analyze linear models to make interpretations based on the data.

CC.2.4.HS.B.4 CC.2.4.HS.B.4

Recognize and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments.

CC.2.4.HS.B.5 CC.2.4.HS.B.5

Make inferences and justify conclusions based on sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies.

Expand

Virtual Manipulative

Click here for this interactive resource.

Description

In this web-based interactive resource, users are allowed to input the theoretical probability for up to three events and then see experimental results.

Experimental probability is defined as the chances of something happening, based on repeated testing and observing results. It is the ratio of the number of times an event occurred to the number of times tested. For example, to find the experimental probability of winning a game, one must play the game many times, then divide the number of games won by the total number of games played.

Theoretical probability is defined as the chances of events happening as determined by calculating results that would occur under ideal circumstances. For example, the theoretical probability of rolling a 4 on a four-sided die is 1/4 or 25%, because there is one chance in four to roll a 4, and under ideal circumstances one out of every four rolls would be a 4.

Specifically, this activity can be used to:

introduce the concepts of chance and probability
illustrate the difference between experimental and theoretical probability
introduce the concept of random numbers

Students can use the Exploration Questions and the Tally Table to guide their investigations.

This resource requires the use of Adobe Flash. Please make sure you have this feature enabled in your browser. If you need assistance enabling it, please contact the SAS Help Desk (1-877-973-3727).

Content Collections

Content Provider

The Shodor Foundation is a non-profit research and education organization dedicated to the advancement of science and math education, specifically through the use of modeling and simulation technologies. For more information, please visit www.shodor.org.

Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability: The Crazy Choices Game